Is Sundance Still Working? How the 2014 Sundance Film Festival Lineup Did at the Box Office

Unfortunately, Sundance 2014 was not an exception to that.

The two films from Sundance 2014 that were very successful financially were Boyhood ($24.6 million in the U.S., $43.7 million worldwide) and A Most Wanted Man ($17.2 million U.S., $31.6 million worldwide). However, both films did not screen in competition. That means they weren’t competing for awards and were either screening to build buzz or to add distributors. Other non-competition films to cross the $1 million mark at the box office were Calvary ($3.6 million U.S., $12.1 million worldwide), Wish I Was Here ($3.6 million U.S., $5.5 million worldwide), Obvious Child ($3.1 million U.S.), The Trip to Italy ($2.8 million U.S., $5.9 million worldwide), The Raid 2 ($2.6 million U.S.), Love is Strange ($2.3 million U.S.), and Laggies ($1.1 million U.S.). In addition, though The Babadook and 20,000 Days on Earth grossed just $480,326 and $276,181 in the U.S. respectively, their total worldwide takes were $4,397,326 and $2,102,181.

The number of films in competition to eventually cross that $1 million mark was much smaller. Only Whiplash ($6.7 million U.S., $7.6 million worldwide), The Skeleton Twins ($5.3 million U.S.),  Dear White People ($4.4 million U.S.) and Fed Up ($1.5 million U.S.) managed to make it. Another sixteen films both in and out of competition grossed six figures, and a total of 40 films shown at Sundance eventually grossed more than $50,000 each at the worldwide box office. That’s a big number compared to previous years. However, with only Boyhood, A Most Wanted Man, and Cavalry making more than $10 million (none of which screeed in competition), 2014 is yet another year that lacked a major box office hit coming out of Sundance.

Nobody is going to say that a small movie like Whiplash isn’t a success for “only” grossing $6.7 million in the U.S., especially since the film only had a $3.3 million production budget. But considering how much money went into promoting Whiplash as one of the best movies of the year (and it was) and how much press the film has gotten during awards season — including J.K. Simmons‘ Golden Globe win and Oscar nomination — it actually is surprising that movies with those kinds of numbers are considered an “indie hit” these days. Compared to that the $60 million U.S. gross of Sundance 2006’s Little Miss Sunshine (and $100 million U.S. gross) on an $8 million budget is like Avatar. Which brings up a troubling realization that indie films — or at the very least, indie films that premiere at Sundance — are not making the same money they used to when they are acquired and go into release.

Video-on-Demand and streaming obviously help, but few films are making $1 million or more from these distribution methods. Theaters are still the primary ways that these movies make money, and if they’re not making money in theaters, there’s a good chance they’re not making much money with streaming because that likely means there just isn’t that much buzz about them.

All this means is that distributors aren’t taking chances. Even though Boyhood was made by IFC, the company was looking for distributors to partner on the release of the film at Sundance… with no takers. Think that over: the most buzzed about film coming out of Sundance 2014 — which is now a major Oscar contender — was shunned by distributors. Was it too out there and too different for companies like Sony Picture Classics and Fox Searchlight? Or did these distributors honestly think that Boyhood had no chance of recouping its $3 million budget? Honestly, considering only eight Sundance films this year crossed that mark at the U.S. box office, the caution is understandable.

There’s no films on the schedule that specifically scream “hit”, although the Jack Black-James Marden dramedy The D Train, and Sarah Silverman’s attempt to go dramatic in I Smile Back might be worth a look (or worth a laugh, depending if she pulls it off). Documentaries from Sundance rarely do big numbers afterward, but 3 1/2 Minutes — about the death of African-American teenager Jordan Davis — is touching on very relevant issues, and the documentary Chuck Norris vs. Communism — about smuggled VHS action movie tapes during the Cold War — has too awesome of a title to ignore. But it’s impossible for me to predict what movies might find an audience simply based on their descriptions. Unlike in past years there really hasn’t been any buzz on any of the titles yet, which is concerning.

I don’t mean to sound all doom-and-gloom about Sundance 2015, but it would be great to see the Festival become the buzz-builder it was in the 1990s up until about six years ago. Though audiences have so many more ways to consume indie cinema thanks to VOD, streaming, and other alternate distribution methods, they have to hear good things about these movies in order for them to make the decision to watch them. Honestly, that seems to be the weakest part of Sundance’s method right now and the question Sundance will need to address moving forward. After all, the better Sundance movies do in the long run, the more it helps the festival be recognized as the launching pad for indie film.

What do you think is the role the Sundance Film Festival plays in the film industry of 2015?