Tonight, the year’s best films will compete for the coveted Oscar trophy during the ceremony for the 85th annual Academy Awards. Minus reviewing some of the films, announcing the host and posting the nominations, we haven’t done much else in terms of analyzing the competition since so many people do it. I’ve finally got around to watching every film (excluding the shorts and two documentaries) in this year’s race and thought I’d offer my opinion on who might be taking home the awards tonight.
Below I’ll break down each category and offer up some commentary on whom I think will win and maybe even who I think should win (I’m not including the shorts categories as I’ve only seen two of the nominations).
Best Picture
When looking at the nine films up for best picture it would seem like a highly competitive category, but after seeing all the awards dished out by various circles one thing becomes clear, Argo is taking the golden statue home. This is pretty a much a lock unless Life of Pi or maybe even Silver Linings Playbook somehow manages to sneak up unknowing through the ranks. After not being nominated for best director, Affleck’s film is bound to get the recognition it deserves by the Academy by taking this award (the win at the DGA awards helps too).
Actor in a Leading Role
Another surefire lock here is Daniel Day-Lewis for Lincoln. It would probably be the biggest upset in Academy history if he didn’t win. Any other year this would have been Joaquin Phoenix’s award but it’s impossible when you’re up against someone who made you believe they were actually Lincoln.
Actor in a Supporting Role
Probably the most difficult and most competitive category to predict and vote on, every single one of these actors is a past academy winner. Arkin was great, De Niro was pretty good, Hoffman was excellent, Jones was pretty good and Waltz was excellent. While I would normally have pulled for Hoffman, Christoph Waltz is equally as good in his role in Django Unchained and his likable character coupled with stoic performance has me thinking that he’ll take home his second Oscar tonight. This is a category where everyone could win and should win, hell this is De Niro’s first nomination in 21 years.
Actress in a Leading Role
This is another tough category to choose as, like myself, most people have narrowed their selection to three people, Jessica Chastain, Jennifer Lawrence and Emmanuelle Riva. As much as I would love to see Quvenzhané Wallis get the win she won’t come out on top based on everything we’ve seen. For a while it seemed like Jennifer Lawrence versus Jessica Chastain with Lawrence coming out on top. Riva though has since come out of the word and everyone has taken note of her strong performance in Amour. While I may not love the movie she should be the winner and will be my choice for this year’s best actress. The only caveat is that the film hits too close to home for a lot of people that see it and that would be the main reason why Lawrence ends up winning.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Anne Hathaway in Les Miserables, there is absolutely no question about this. If you’ve seen the movie then you know why.
Animated Feature Film
For me this should be a competition between Brave and Wreck-it Ralph except I think the real race is between Ralph and Frankenweenie. The academy loves anything Frankenstein related and while ParaNorman was a success it doesn’t stand a chance against my top two films. Pirates Band of Misfits isn’t even being pushed by Sony even though it’s actually a pretty entertaining film. I’m in the minority here when it comes to my love of Brave but I know better than to go with my heart with these things and my love of video games supports the decision that Wreck-it Ralph will likely win best animated feature.
Cinematography
I wasn’t a huge fan of the film Life of Pi but I know stunning visuals when I see them and Ang Lee’s adaptation was visual masterpiece. It was one of the most beautiful looking films I had seen this past year and one of the few I actually paid to go see in 3D. This one is a lock for me and for good reason.
Costume Design
I’m probably one of the last people that should ever try and predict a fashion category but after seeing Anna Karenina I think I can make a safe bet that this will win. The costumes were amazing and easily stand out amongst the competition.
Production Design
This is another tough one for me. The look and feel of all the features in this category was outstanding and while Anna Karenina looks amazing, the movie was merely “meh” and that could be its downfall. As a result, the technical achievement of Life of Pi and the fact that more people enjoyed it will probably be enough to bump it into the top spot.
Hair and Makeup
This is another category I shouldn’t even bother judging and I plan on going against the grain here on this one. A lot of people think Les Miserables is going to take this category because of the change in look of both Hugh Jackman and Anne Hathaway but I think the right winner here would be The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey. You look at the look of the 13 dwarves and everything you see there is impressive, especially the facial hair and to me the culmination of all that works stands out more than the naturalistic change of the characters in Les Miserables.
Documentary Feature
This is the only category where I haven’t seen all the nominees. I never got around to see How to Survive a Plague nor have I had a chance to see The Gatekeepers. Despite that, based on what I have seen and from looking at the winners of the category from other awards shows, Searching for Sugar Man has got to take this one home.
Directing
This is a really interesting category because two of the best picture nominees didn’t make the cut even though one of them will likely take best picture. Best director is going to be a showdown between Steven Spielberg and Ang Lee and I can’t decide who will take it. Lee was able to adapt a novel that seemed impossible to actually bring to the big screen whereas Spielberg’s passion project was a moving piece of political cinema made great by its outstanding performances. While Lee certainly could take the award, the academy loves Spielberg and this is his chance to get back in the spotlight so I’m going with Spielberg.
Foreign Language Film
Another lock in this race is Michael Haneke’s old person drama, Amour. Sure, the other films aren’t bad and I really enjoyed the adventure that Kon Tiki brought me on but Amour is going to take this one without a doubt. It would be a huge upset if it didn’t.
Film Editing
I’ll be honest, I have no idea who is going to win but I should just say William Goldenberg since he’s up for this category for two films. In all seriousness though it will really come down to Argo and Life of Pi but because of the great tonal balancing act found in Argo I think this one’s going to take it.
Sound Editing
There is a lot going on in this category and I think Skyfall, Argo and Life of Pi all have a good shot, but for me the technical prowess and creation of the sound throughout Life of Pi makes it the top choice for this category, though don’t be surprised if Argo wins, it has a solid chance.
Sound Mixing
Les Miserables is probably going to take this because it’s a musical that was mostly performed live on the set. They had to take the performances from the set and the factor in all of the other audio sounds like the gun shots, factory work, waves crashing, pulling the ship in, mixing it all together is pretty impressive and it just worked really well for the film. Les Miserable has got this one in the bag.
Visual Effects
The geek inside me is inclined to go with The Avengers, it’s sort of a requirement, especially when you watch the climactic new York battle scene. Prometheus and the Hobbit aren’t bad choices either but the mastery behind Life of Pi and the challenges they faced putting this film together makes it seem like it will probably take this one as well. Life of Pi is going to be walking away with a lot of awards tonight except the ones that people care the most about.
Best Adapted Screenplay
To me, this is a really tough category but when you think about it there are really only two contenders, Argo and Silver Linings Playbook. I think David O. Russell is going to walk away with this one despite how amazing Argo was. Silver Linings Playbook was such a natural and down to earth film that so many people were able to connect with it and I think that’s what makes the movie and the script so special.
Best Original Screenplay
In a rare move, I’m going to look at past winner and combine that with who I want to win this category, Quentin Tarantino. Django Unchained was an awesome movie and the script was fantastic. It’s chock full of Tarantino’s trademark language and everything about it kicks ass. I know Zero Dark Thirty could take this one as well but I’m Unchaining myself for this one.
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